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Climate Change Influence on Crop Yields and Crop Yield Variability in Nigeria

. Ajala Adedolapo kemi & Ajetomobi Joshua Olusegun ,Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State. Nigeria


Abstract

Agriculture in Nigeria is now exposed to natural threats through increased variability of weather patterns, increased frequency and sternness of extreme events of the climate and this has consequently affected the economy of the nation since agriculture contribute to the nations’ gross domestic product. This research employed the statistical approach suggested by Just Pope to investigate the relationship between the unadjusted mean yield, yield variance and adjusted mean yield of selected food crops and temperature (in centigrade) and precipitation (in millimeters) for the period 1981 – 2018 in Nigeria. The analyses focused on maize, rice, beans and groundnut for all the states in Nigeria using 3530 Cross sectional data on yield of selected food crops obtained from the Nigeria general household survey data- wave 4. Data on the two important climate variables required for crop growth - temperature and precipitation – used for the analysis were obtained from the Nigerian Metrological Agency.The result indicated that increase in temperature negatively influence maize and rice adjusted mean yield and positively influence beans and groundnut adjusted mean yield. However, increase in precipitation positively influence the yield level of maize and rice and it negatively influence the yield of beans and groundnut, this study therefore recommended that weather index insurance will be helpful to farmers  

Key words: Climate, food crops, yields, variability Nigeria

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