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Development of Scenarios for Increasing Maize Production In Changing Weather Conditions Using A System Dynamics Approach

. Indriana , Budi Setiawan , Wahib Muhaimin & Imam Santoso


Abstract

Changes in weather have an impact on current agricultural conditions. Weather changes occur due to the large number of human activities that have an impact on the occurrence of extreme weather conditions that are uncertain. Weather is a determining variable that is closely related to agricultural production capacity. The problem of the gap between demand and supply that occurs requires preventive actions that need to be taken to reduce the impact of losses that occur. The aim of this research is to develop a climate change scenario to increase corn production. This study of production problems is approached by mathematical modeling to simulate policies that might be applied to solve the problem. In the approach to increasing maize production, a model is built consisting of 3 sub models, namely the production sub model, the demand sub model, and the profit sub model. The formed model is adjusted to real conditions by verifying and validating it. The models that have been validated and then carried out scenario development based on weather conditions that affect the level of maize production. The scenario development is based on variables that experience the risk impact of weather changes. The weather conditions used are based on normal rainfall, high rainfall, and low rainfall. The scenario development is based on variables that experience the risk impact of weather changes. The weather conditions used are based on normal rainfall, high rainfall, and low rainfall. The scenario development is based on variables that experience the risk impact of weather changes. The weather conditions used are based on normal rainfall, high rainfall, and low rainfall.

 

Keywords  : Weather, Rainfall, Corn, Production, System Dynamics

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