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Theory of Fear and Tear: A Consequence of Deterrence Failure

. Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi


Abstract

Conceptually, deterrence aims to prevent an adversary from planning and organizing acts of violence and war due to the fear of such consequences that it could ill afford. However, the terminology gained prominence only during the Cold War era with particular reference to the advent of nuclear weapons. This traditional meaning and concept of deterrence worked well between the Cold War adversaries because they understood its consequences, perhaps learned some lessons after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and did not engage directly in any military confrontations after the establishment of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). However, the two superpowers of the time: The United States (US), and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), continued to support their proxies to strive for supremacy in the international system established after the end of World War II. The situation dramatically changed with the demise of the Soviet Union as a competitive opponent, and the US-led Western alliance freely waged wars in different regions against Unequal Military Powers (UMPs), who did not have any worthwhile military strength and support and were destroyed by many superior forces. More so, since the beginning of the twenty-first century, all wars have been between the UMPs, where the US-led Western alliance destroyed Afghanistan and Iraq, and now Russia is following a similar strategy in Ukraine. Israel, on the other hand, has also adopted a similar strategy with far more vengeance, and leveling the ground at Gaza, against another UMP. This paper aims to highlight the need to re-define the term deterrence in the changed paradigm where the powerful states are adopting the strategy of fear and tear against the people of the target state which does not possess any worthwhile military structure and support, and that too for the actions of Non-State Actors (NSAs). Adopting inductive reasoning and qualitative analysis, this author intends to make people aware of the dangerous consequences of the theory of fear and tear as a military strategy, for both: the attackers and the victims.

Key Words: Wars, Conflicts, Deterrence, Fear and Tear, USA, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Non-State Actors (NSAs), Unequal military Powers (UMPs).

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