This study investigates the impact of economic and climatic factors on chickpea supply in the Southern zone of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, using a comprehensive empirical analysis. Utilizing data spanning from 1980 to 2016, the study employs various econometric techniques, including Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling, to unravel the long-run and short-run elasticities of chickpea supply concerning key variables. The findings from the long run regression analysis reveal that the chickpea supply (production) exhibits a positive and statistically significant relationship with its own price, indicating price elasticity. Conversely, the price of the competitive crop, wheat, exerts a negative and significant influence on chickpea production. This underscores the importance of price support mechanisms and crop diversification policies. The study also underscores the significance of climatic factors, with minimum temperature positively impacting chickpea production and maximum temperature adversely affecting it. Precipitation demonstrates a positive relationship with chickpea production. In the short run, lagged production, chickpea price, and wheat price exhibit notable effects on chickpea supply, along with temperature fluctuations. In light of these findings, the study recommends for effective price stabilization mechanisms, crop diversification, climate-resilient farming practices, and risk mitigation strategies. These recommendations aim to enhance the sustainability and resilience of chickpea agriculture in the region.

Keywords: Chickpea Supply; Price Elasticity; Climate Impact; Time Series Analysis; ARDL Model; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan