Pakistan's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which pose a significant threat to the country's food security. This study focuses on assessing the impact of climate change variables, including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine, on the major crops of Pakistan, such as wheat, rice, and maize. The study employs feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error techniques using time-series data covering the period 2009 to 2018.

The study findings reveal that the maximum temperature has a detrimental effect on wheat production, while the minimum temperature has a positive and significant impact on all crops. Furthermore, the impact of rainfall on crop yield is negative, except for wheat. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to develop high-yielding varieties that are resistant to heat and drought. This study's findings suggest that policymakers in Pakistan should prioritize the development of such crops to ensure food security in the country.

Keywords: Pakistan; climate change; yield; major food crops; food security; agricultural development